Charlie Baker

A recent poll by Suffok University/7News shows Charlie Baker surging in the polls, and Deval Patrick’s numbers looking increasingly weak.

In the Republican primary, Baker is well ahead of Mihos 47-17%. So assuming that Baker stays ahead, then in a match-up of Patrick, Baker and Cahill breaks 33/25/23. Patrick is still leading – but not by much.

There are months of campaigning ahead and Baker is still not well known to voters. Even in this latest poll 70% of voters either had not heard of Baker or were undecided.

But everyone has an opinion about Patrick – and its not good. He is polling 50% unfavorable with only 12% undecided. So while Baker still has a lot of undecided voters to campaign to, Patrick is left with the unenviable job of converting a large number of dissatisfied voters. And he’ll have former Democrat Cahill to syphon off Democratic voters in the general election.

Its likely that Baker’s strong showing is more a reflection of voters dissatisfaction with the other candidates and Baker being a relatively unknown in Massachusetts politics.

Still as voters get to know Baker their opinion of him is rising fast. In November Baker was polling about even with Cristy Mihos (30-33). Now he has a giant lead over Mihos (47-17).

Patrick’s unfavorables continue to grow, climbing steadily from the low teens, and jumping up radically since last Summer. The Globe in January had his unfavorables at 50%. The recent Suffolk poll  confirms that. You have to love their headline “Early Poll Points to Risks for Patrick”. Reminds me of the Globe’s coverage of Coakley.

According to the Suffolk poll voters aren’t blaming Patrick for the economy but rather for being “a weak leader”. The poll gave people limited options and I think this is only the closest option to the real reason – he is spending too much time on insider politics and not enough time on the people’s business.

When Patrick became governor he put a web site where people could voice their issues. For the entire time that Patrick has been governor the #1 issue on it  has been Shared Parenting. Patrick has always said he supports it. And after much pressure from activists Patrick promised months ago to convene a task force to study the issue – but has since done nothing.

So its not surprising that when you don’t listen to the people – you find that they aren’t going to vote for you. Ask Martha Coakley.