Deval Patrick

Polling firm Public Policy Polling released its latest latest poll about Massachusetts. It’s bad news for Deval again:

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Patrick’s job performance?

Approve …………. 22%
Disapprove ……… 59%
Not Sure ………….. 19%

This is one of the lowest approval ratings of any Governor in America. It’s lower than Jon Corzine who was recalled. More troubling for Patrick is that only 19% of the respondents are “not sure.” To make headway he has the difficult job of converting people who already have a negative opinion. He has an almost 3-1 ratio of unfavorables.

Charlie Baker has very promising results from the poll:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Charlie Baker?

Favorable ……….. 17%
Unfavorable …….. 13%
Not Sure ………….. 70%

This even though the favorable number is lower this is actually a very good result for Baker. He has roughly a 1-1 ratio of favorable to unfavorable, and 70% of respondents are undecided. If they form their opinion at the same rate as people who already know about him then he should reach 50% approval ratings by the election. His job is easy compared to Patrick’s.

Tim Cahill is in a similar position:

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tim Cahill?

Favorable ……….. 24%
Unfavorable …….. 22%
Not Sure ………….. 54%

A 1-1 ratio of favorable to unfavorable. The question is – where is he going to draw support from? Both Patrick and Baker need to win independents. Depending on which of those are drawn more to Cahill could make the difference in this race.

In a matchup between Patrick Baker and Cahill:

Patrick……………………. 29%
Baker …………………….. 27%
Cahill……………………… 21%
Undecided……………….. 23%

The race looks neck and neck except -remember- most voters have not formed an opinion on Baker and Cahill. So, at this point, Patrick needs to be polling well ahead of the other two.

The Patrick camp is in panic mode. The Governor is already out in full campaign mode. He should probably stay at the State House working. Unless he does much more to address the people’s issues in the coming months, than he has so far, he’s toast.

The poll respondents are still largely self identifying as Democrats by 2-1, and voted for Obama by a large majority. But people are now thinking of themselves as moderates:

Liberal …………………………… 26%
Moderate………………………… 47%
Conservative……………………. 27%

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