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Age, Sex and Race Playing a Significant Role

The race is tightening. In the latest Rasmussen Poll, Patrick who last polled at 45% has seen support drop to 41%. He is still seeing benefits from good economic news. Before recent reports of an economic turn around Patrick was polling in the low 30’s.

Baker continues to rise. As the number of voters with no opinion of Baker shrinks he is seeing his poll numbers rise as expected. Probably not as quickly as he needs to, but the differential between Patrick and Baker is narrowing.

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Charlie Baker

Baker unveiled a sweeping tax cut proposal at the Massachusetts Chamber of Commerce breakfast on Friday June 10th, reducing corporate sales and income taxes all to 5%.

Corporate Tax Rate at 5%: The proposal is fairly comprehensive, but it would have the effect of greatly simplifying the corporate tax code. The current corporate tax code is complex and taxes businesses in different industries differently with a tax rate in most industries at 8.75%. Baker proposes to reduce the corporate tax rate on all industries to 5% within 4 years.

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Suffolk University/Channel 7 has released its latest poll on the Governor’s race essentially confirming the results of the Ramussen poll from 2 weeks ago.

It shows Governor Deval Patrick gained significantly as Tim Cahill’s support has crashed.  Jill Stein had a surprisingly strong showing of 8%, which indicates that many progressives are looking for alternatives to Patrick.

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Yvonne Abraham has an excellent editorial in the Globe this morning with some quotes from our elected officials which shows just how out of touch Beacon Hill has become.

Tim Cahill asked about his involvement in the patronage scandal:

“Does that not happen in government all the time? Obviously, it is part of the political process.’’

What’s he hoping to do? Demoralize us into giving up on democracy?

Michael Travaglini, head of the state’s pension fund, is resigning because the state is considering imposing caps on bonuses. At $322,000 per year, he is already one of the highest paid employees. He had this to say:

“I have a wife and three children, and I’m going to provide for them. Someone else can hang around for that, but it’s not going to be Mike Travaglini”

Don’t let the door hit your ass on the way out.

Redmassgroup posted what appears to be an internal strategy memo from the Baker Tisei campaign predicting that Patrick will have to wage a negative campaign. Leaked memos are sometimes leaked deliberately – so read this almost like you would a press release. It’s interesting nonetheless. I pretty much agree with it. I’m not sure going negative on Baker is such a great strategy for Patrick, unless he has got something very tangible on Baker.

This may be an attempt to immunize themselves against a possible negative attack by Patrick, by predicting it now, so they can have an “I told you so” later.

Memo after the jump:

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William Flanagan

For 10 years now officials in Fall River have lobbied the state to invest in the development of a biotechnology park in the area – the SouthCoast BioPark. And over the past few years the state has invested about $70 million dollars on road improvements for the industrial park, including a new highway ramp off Route 24.

Meanwhile in the background casino interests have been working to build support among local officials to turn SouthCoast BioPark into a resort casino. By “working” I mean making campaign contributions to Fall River mayor William Flanagan.

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Jill Stein

Today Jill Stein released her 2009 tax return to the media. In what has long been an electoral tradition, candidates for high elected office often release tax returns as a way of helping voters understand the class background of the candidates.

Candidates for high office are often millionaires, but they try when possible to convince voters that they understand the problems of regular people. And candidates will often try to paint their opponents as being out of touch with common citizen.

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Grace Ross

Update: Confirmed, Ross doesn’t have enough signatures and won’t be on the Democratic Primary Ballot

According to Secretary of State William Galvin, Grace Ross is well short of the required number of signatures to make it on the gubernatorial primary ballot.

Ross had to submit 10,000 signatures by May 4th, which were due to be certified by today at 5pm. Galvin told the Boston Globe today that they have certified only 5,700 signatures of the 10,000 she needs. When reached for comment Ross said “We are going have an announcement in the morning.”

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Charlie Baker

For a few weeks now we’ve seen a mysterious poster on twitter promoting a web site to political activists called “masshadenough.com“. It was a single page that asked “Had enough of high taxes, political corruption and insider deals?” The source of the messages and purpose of the site was unknown.

Today we found out – that page was a promotion for Charlie Baker’s speaking tour this week. He’s going around the state making his case for reducing taxes, and fixing the endemic corruption we’ve had over the past several years. The tour starts today in Framingham and will end Thursday afternoon at the State House.

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RGA’s Negative Ads Work – But do they Benefit Patrick more than Baker?

From Rasmussen’s poll analysis:

“Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick has gained ground over the past month and now earns 45% of the vote in his bid for reelection against Republican Charlie Baker and independent Tim Cahill. That’s a 10-point jump from a month ago and the Democratic incumbent’s best showing in surveys stretching back to June of last year.

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For the past two weeks Tim Cahill has been under a withering attack by the Republican Governors Association. Backed by a massive million dollar ad campaign, the ads are everywhere and likely to continue for weeks.

Last week, Cahill responded with a quick web only Scott Brown style response from his kitchen. Today, Cahill released another more polished rebuttal.

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Yet the Republican Governors Association’s target isn’t really Tim Cahill

The RGA released a new ad today targeting Tim Cahill, in an attack that seems to be long term and coordinated. Starting about a week ago the RGA began a campaign blitz of television and internet advertising critical of Cahill.

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Tim Cahill

I thought the governor’s campaign would go negative, but not this soon, not this hard, and not from the Republican candidate. Recent polls show that Patrick, Cahill and Baker have roughly equal support. Patrick has negatives around 60%, and voters haven’t heard of Baker by a similar margin.

So, with limited room for Patrick to grow his support, and with Baker having so much running room, I thought the race would be to define Baker in a negative way before he gets a chance to define himself to voters.

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The Republican Governors Association began a massive advertising campaign today attacking State Treasurer Tim Cahill, with a ‘7 figure’ ad buy, featuring ads that attack Cahill for being financially ‘reckless’ and ‘corrupt’.

The ad campaign includes a web site, The Cahill Report hosting the ads, and a twitter campaign (#CahillReport) to distribute them virally.

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Tim Cahill

Tim Cahill wants to bring slot machines to Massachusetts. Even though slots have no economic benefit, it’s not surprising that Cahill is promoting them because slot machine manufacturers have been major contributors to his political campaigns for years.

Cahill supports the legislature’s casino bill. He’s trying to distance himself a little bit now by saying that he only supports ‘most’ of it. He claims that he’ has been too busy to read it all.

“I’m running a campaign, and I just haven’t had time to sit down and plow through it all.”

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Deval Patrick

Yesterday morning Western New England College released the latest poll in the Governor’s race showing support for the three major Gubernatorial candidates:

  • Deval Patrick: 34%
  • Tim Cahill: 29%
  • Charlie Baker: 27%

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Charlie Baker

Delegates at the Republican Convention today voted overwhelmingly for Charlie Baker, giving him an overwhelming 89% of the vote. Candidate Christy Mihos garnered only 11% of the vote, well below the 15% that it would take to qualify for the Republican Primary. Republican party leaders say Baker’s margin is the largest in recent convention history.

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Deval Patrick

Polling firm Public Policy Polling released its latest latest poll about Massachusetts. It’s bad news for Deval again:

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Patrick’s job performance?

Approve …………. 22%
Disapprove ……… 59%
Not Sure ………….. 19%

This is one of the lowest approval ratings of any Governor in America. It’s lower than Jon Corzine who was recalled. More troubling for Patrick is that only 19% of the respondents are “not sure.” To make headway he has the difficult job of converting people who already have a negative opinion. He has an almost 3-1 ratio of unfavorables.

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Deval Patrick

It looks like Deval Patrick may convene a task force on Shared Parenting after all.

For months now, activists for Shared Parenting, bill H1400 have been asking Gov. Patrick to convene a task force on shared parenting like he promised months ago.

It looks like Patrick may keep his promise to the people after all. The Governors cheif legal counsel, Mo Cowan has been making inquiries into who should be on the task force. On the short list are Dr. Net Holstein and Dr. Peter Hill.

Deval Patrick

In his monthly appearance on WTKK, today Governor Deval Patrick promised to convene a task force to study Shared Parenting.

A bill on Shared Parenting has appeared before the Legislature for the last several years. It’s before the Legislature again this year in the form of bill H1400. It would create a presumption that in divorce, when there are two fit parents that shared custody, it is in the best interests of children – a finding backed up by most modern studies on child development after divorce. Read the rest of this entry »

RSS Massachusetts Election 2010

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    The candidates came out swinging. Brown started by immediately questioning Warren’s claim of being a native american saying that “She checked the box claiming she’s a Native American, and clearly she’s not. The only way to set the record straight is to release your personnel records … and you refuse to release your records, and […]
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  • Elizabeth Warren: Is She Anti-Business? September 13, 2012
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  • Ron Paul Responds to TSA: Introduces ‘American Traveler Dignity Act’ November 19, 2010
    Ron Paul continues to be a true American hero.
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  • Taking Down Scotty Brown November 9, 2010
    Could any Dems topple #41 in six weeks? Now that the 2010 election is behind us, we can begin to focus on the truly...
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  • Post Election Analysis: What are people saying? November 5, 2010
    Republicans were disappointed that they lost all their congressional challenges, and all their races for statewide constitutional offices. Democrats are savoring a “clean sweep” in Massachusetts in the middle of a devastating collapse at the national level. There are many good post election analysis articles out on the web worth looking at. I don’t have […] […]
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  • Video: Barney Frank’s Graceless Victory Speech November 4, 2010
    Frank calls out his opponents including the Herald, by name – and the Herald has a reaction: Newspapers live for moments like the one Barney Frank gave us on election night. To be called out – by name – by a 30-year incumbent. It doesn’t get any better than that. Now you’d think that a […]
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  • Video: Rep. Elect Dan Winslow and Sen. Bob Hedlund on the Future of the Massachusetts Republican Party November 4, 2010
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  • Video: Charlie Baker's Concession Speech November 4, 2010
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  • Joe Van Nes: A Final Message November 4, 2010
    I congratulate Bill Keating on his win. This letter is not aimed at him, just the system in general in which we all live. I hope Mr. Keating has the ability to stand up to special interests and keep the people in mind when he is tempted with money and power. I would also like […]
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  • Massachusetts 2010 Ballot Questions Election Results: Yes, No, No November 4, 2010
    Question – 1-Drop Alcohol Sales Tax – Ballot Issue 2119 of 2168 Precincts Reporting – 98% Name Votes Vote % Yes 1,107,141 52% No 1,029,925 48% [section_spacer] [section_spacer] [section_spacer] Question – 2-Repeal Housing Permit Option – Ballot Issue 2105 of 2168 Precincts Reporting – 97% Name Votes Vote % No 1,212,121 58% Yes 860,661 42% […]
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