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Age, Sex and Race Playing a Significant Role

The race is tightening. In the latest Rasmussen Poll, Patrick who last polled at 45% has seen support drop to 41%. He is still seeing benefits from good economic news. Before recent reports of an economic turn around Patrick was polling in the low 30’s.

Baker continues to rise. As the number of voters with no opinion of Baker shrinks he is seeing his poll numbers rise as expected. Probably not as quickly as he needs to, but the differential between Patrick and Baker is narrowing.

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Charlie Baker

Baker unveiled a sweeping tax cut proposal at the Massachusetts Chamber of Commerce breakfast on Friday June 10th, reducing corporate sales and income taxes all to 5%.

Corporate Tax Rate at 5%: The proposal is fairly comprehensive, but it would have the effect of greatly simplifying the corporate tax code. The current corporate tax code is complex and taxes businesses in different industries differently with a tax rate in most industries at 8.75%. Baker proposes to reduce the corporate tax rate on all industries to 5% within 4 years.

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Suffolk University/Channel 7 has released its latest poll on the Governor’s race essentially confirming the results of the Ramussen poll from 2 weeks ago.

It shows Governor Deval Patrick gained significantly as Tim Cahill’s support has crashed.  Jill Stein had a surprisingly strong showing of 8%, which indicates that many progressives are looking for alternatives to Patrick.

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Redmassgroup posted what appears to be an internal strategy memo from the Baker Tisei campaign predicting that Patrick will have to wage a negative campaign. Leaked memos are sometimes leaked deliberately – so read this almost like you would a press release. It’s interesting nonetheless. I pretty much agree with it. I’m not sure going negative on Baker is such a great strategy for Patrick, unless he has got something very tangible on Baker.

This may be an attempt to immunize themselves against a possible negative attack by Patrick, by predicting it now, so they can have an “I told you so” later.

Memo after the jump:

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Jill Stein

Today Jill Stein released her 2009 tax return to the media. In what has long been an electoral tradition, candidates for high elected office often release tax returns as a way of helping voters understand the class background of the candidates.

Candidates for high office are often millionaires, but they try when possible to convince voters that they understand the problems of regular people. And candidates will often try to paint their opponents as being out of touch with common citizen.

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RGA’s Negative Ads Work – But do they Benefit Patrick more than Baker?

From Rasmussen’s poll analysis:

“Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick has gained ground over the past month and now earns 45% of the vote in his bid for reelection against Republican Charlie Baker and independent Tim Cahill. That’s a 10-point jump from a month ago and the Democratic incumbent’s best showing in surveys stretching back to June of last year.

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Tim Cahill

I thought the governor’s campaign would go negative, but not this soon, not this hard, and not from the Republican candidate. Recent polls show that Patrick, Cahill and Baker have roughly equal support. Patrick has negatives around 60%, and voters haven’t heard of Baker by a similar margin.

So, with limited room for Patrick to grow his support, and with Baker having so much running room, I thought the race would be to define Baker in a negative way before he gets a chance to define himself to voters.

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